A decade following the UK entered into a hurried public vote that divided the country and triggered chaos, a advisory emerges from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
The government and electorate drifted into Brexit and the same could occur with a referendum on a unified Ireland, triggering upheavals for which nobody is equipped.
That conveys the caution from two respected writers from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Establishments Unprepared
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a possibly tense and transformative public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can come out of the blue and can build support very quickly," O’Toole said. "It is my view that the political architecture of our region remains highly fragile."
Released Volume Intends to Stir Debate
The pair have analysed the political, economic and societal arguments for any governmental shift in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to stir debate on the topic with a roadshow of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What troubles all parties, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We do not want a referendum on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose implications have not been spelled out because then you end up with an highly polarised community where people who have lost are not reconciled to losing and the people who have won are uncertain exactly what it is that they have won."
Legal Framework
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a referendum on Irish unity if it appears likely that a majority would support.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists argue this point is approaching, and a organisation called pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions minimise the prospect, leaving it unclear if and when there might be a national vote.
Absence of Substantive Discussion
Partisan language for and against unity has hidden the lack of informed dialogue, stated McBride.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the idea but the actual thinking which may surpass that to realise it is mostly absent. A great deal has gone on in academia but hardly any elected officials or advocates seek to involve themselves even with the basics. To illustrate, what sort of state might be preferred? Centralised? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the publication, no writer supports unity or the status quo. Both writes two articles that aim for neutrality in detailing the case for a united Ireland and the argument opposing it, marshalling financial and societal figures, historical precedents and structural examples.
Arguments cover identity markers, taxes, health services, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the risk of loyalist violence. The goal is to inform and provoke discussion.
"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there has not yet occurred a debate," commented O’Toole. "Dialogue suggests an recognition of the notion that there may exist reasonable perspectives on either side."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate claim they prefer unity but refuse paying higher taxes or adopting a alternative symbol to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British identity.
"Authorities in Dublin should establish what the offer from Irish nationalism is other than just declaring: 'We want a united Ireland and we love you'," said O’Toole.
Possibility of Public Vote
The journalist thinks a referendum in his generation is probable and that it might occur suddenly. "You could have just a mad or a bad or a negligent official who declares: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have plausible, valid points, he said. "One side will succeed on this issue and the other side will in the end lose but all factions has possesses something to learn from the opposing positions."
Appeal for Broader Debate
Westminster should join the dialogue, urged the analyst. "This is about Britain. It's a British question as much as it is an Irish question."
